Bushfire Climatology

Bushfire Climatology - explaining past bushfire weather and climate and how these may vary under climate change projections to build a better risk map for Victoria.

This research is being undertaken for the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries (DEPI).

Project Brief

The aim of this project is to:

• explain the past bushfire weather and climate (including surface, synoptic and climate forcings) and how these may vary under climate change projections.

This will be achieved through:

• summarising historic bushfire weather and bushfire events and examining the changes in frequency, distribution, seasonality and fire danger over the last 40 years;
• identifying the preceding and concurrent climate and synoptic conditions to determine how these contribute/influence fire behaviour; and
• analysing the changes in bushfire weather and events under various climate change scenarios.

The project will provide DEPI with:

• development of a user interface for assessing modelled weather data;
• analysis of past fire events including changes in frequency, distribution and seasonality;
• identification of areas for planned burning based on the frequency and distribution of relevant fire weather;
• updated modelled climate dataset to include between fire season months;
• technical report on synoptic conditions and climate forcings influencing fires in Victoria; and
• identification of appropriate climate change scenarios and models to apply projections to fire risk.