Managing scale and uncertainty

Managing scale and uncertainty in fire management planning - developing models to describe the links between fire science and ecological knowledge, and modelling the relationships between fire severity and fuel and habitat structures in Victorian foothill forests.

This research is being undertaken for the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries (DEPI).

Project Brief  (Managing Scale and Uncertainty in Fire Management Planning)

The project aims to:

• develop conceptual and empirical/fundamental models to test and describe the links between fire science and ecological knowledge gained from small-scale plot research and monitoring with landscape level decision making;
• collate existing data and, where possible provide new data, to test and model the relationships between fire severity/patchiness and fuel and habitat structures in Victorian foothill forests;
• develop and test models to quantify links between these fire and habitat attributes and flora and fauna distribution and abundances, and vegetation growth stages;
• develop and test a suite of remote sensing and monitoring techniques to extrapolate from small-scale plot-based information to landscape-level effects and outcomes through improved research design or monitoring; and
• use these techniques and models to refine the fire behaviour and ecosystem resilience inputs into adaptive fire management and planning.

The project will provide DEPI with:

• conceptual and numerical models describing the relationships between generalised models and landscape outputs and outcomes;
• improved research and monitoring techniques including, where possible, remote sensing and monitoring techniques that enable extrapolation from small-scale plot-based information on fire and habitat attributes to landscape-level effects and outcomes;
• testing and refining of the models and targets in two fire planning case studies; and
• project stakeholder communications materials.